These two tools changed how I assessed my career options…
Every profession I’ve had from high‑stakes project roles to strategy, consulting, and coaching has taught me something about how we make decisions.
Not just what choices we make, but how we make them. Over time, two frameworks have become foundational in my own thinking and in how I help clients navigate uncertainty:
1. The Cone of Possibility: This is a tool to analyse geopolitical decisions using different sources of information
Cone of Possibility
What it is:
This is a way of visualising all the potential futures that extend from now from the most likely and grounded to the wildest and least expected. It’s rooted in foresight and futures‑thinking research, where practitioners map alternative futures not as a single forecast but as a space of possibilities.
In futures studies, it’s used to explore and organise assumptions about the future scenarios. rather than to predict it. Different segments represent:
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Probable futures: close extensions of current reality
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Plausible futures: credible but not guaranteed
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Possible futures: logically conceivable
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Preferable futures: desired or strategic outcomes
Why this matters in real decisions:
Instead of narrowing your view to a “most likely” outcome, the cone encourages you to map multiple credible possibilities so you avoid tunnel vision and make plans that are robust rather than brittle.
2. Minimal Acceptable Outcomes (MAO): What’s the worst you’re willing to accept. This one is for the perfectionists!
What this tool is:
A Minimal Acceptable Outcome (MAO) sometimes described in psychology and decision research as a decision threshold is simply the lowest result you’re willing to accept before you’ll take a specific action or choice. It’s closely related to the concept of satisficing, first proposed by Herbert A. Simon, where you stop searching once a satisfactory outcome that meets your threshold is found rather than trying to find a perfect one.
Why it matters:
Defining your MAO up front helps you:
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Know when to act versus when to wait
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Reduce analysis paralysis
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Avoid chasing unrealistic perfection
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Clarify what really matters for this choice
Unlike maximising which often leads to endless comparison MAO forces clarity on acceptability. It gives you a stop rule.
Why I Like These Tools
Both tools are ways to make uncertainty workable. One expands your view outward (the cone), and one pulls you inward toward a defensible choice (MAO). It helps us manage possibility and reduced perfectionist tendencies.
Together, they help you balance exploration and closure:
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See the wide range of what might happen
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Decide based on what must be achieved to move forward
Want to Apply These to Your Decisions?
If you’re facing a big career, product, or strategic choice and want help using these tools to cut through the noise I’ve opened up a limited number of 1‑on‑1 strategy calls this month.
If you want to know more then book in for your intro call below.
Or forward this email to someone who might benefit!
Until next time,
Rebecca
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That’s it for this week.
Keep showing up, keeping on and building something you love.
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